The global demand for green hydrogen is on a trajectory of significant growth, driven by the urgent need to meet decarbonisation targets and achieve net-zero emissions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), hydrogen demand reached 97 million tonnes in 2023, predominantly driven by the chemicals and refining sectors, with hydrogen derived from unabated fossil fuels. However, as the world shifts toward decarbonisation, the green hydrogen market, hydrogen produced using renewable energy, is poised to grow substantially, with projections suggesting demand could reach up to 388 million tonnes per year by 2050. This shift is expected to take off after 2030, propelled by technological advancements, declining production costs, and policy support aimed at hard-to-abate sectors such as steel, transportation, and aviation.
Challenges and Opportunities
The transition to green hydrogen presents both challenges and opportunities. While hydrogen adoption remains niche in the 2020s, the IEA highlights industrial hubs as key areas where green hydrogen could replace fossil-based hydrogen, especially in ammonia and methanol production, and refining, where technology risks are lower. Growing interest from steel manufacturing, road transport, and aviation sectors indicates strong demand for green hydrogen in the near future. Regulations such as the EU’s Fit for 55, RED III, and REPowerEU, alongside similar efforts across regions like the Middle East, India, China, and South America, are driving the push for renewable hydrogen adoption. These regulations aim to replace fossil feedstocks with renewable electricity and biogenic sources, positioning green hydrogen as a future-proof fuel, particularly in industries like shipping, where green hydrogen-based fuels can help fleets comply with, for example, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).
SOEC for Green Hydrogen Production
Solid Oxide Electrolyser Cells (SOEC) are emerging as a leading technology for green hydrogen production, offering distinct advantages over traditional water electrolysis. SOECs are more efficient because they require less electricity to produce hydrogen, utilizing faster and more efficient chemical kinetics. They can generate steam using lower-cost heat, reducing reliance on expensive electricity. Additionally, SOECs produce no waste heat, unlike conventional water electrolysis, making them a more energy-efficient choice for hydrogen production.
The market for SOECs is closely tied to the growing demand for green hydrogen. Reports from McKinsey & Co. and other sources suggest that industries such as chemicals (notably ammonia and methanol), refineries, steel, and e-fuels for aviation and maritime are ideal candidates for SOEC technology due to the superior efficiency of SOECs. While the share of SOEC electrolysers is currently small, this is expected to grow exponentially over the next decade. The demand for electrolyser stacks is anticipated to materialise two years before the surge in demand for green hydrogen itself.
A Promising Future Beyond 2030
In the near term, smaller electrolysers (under 10 MW) will be deployed primarily for technology validation and acceptance. As the market matures, larger electrolysers (10-100 MW) are expected to dominate, becoming a key revenue driver in the green hydrogen sector after 2030. This really highlights the importance of projects like CLEANHYPRO, which are laying the groundwork for the large-scale deployment of SOEC technology. These projects will help establish the necessary infrastructure, drive down costs, and accelerate the transition to green hydrogen production.
As global demand for green hydrogen continues to grow, SOEC technology is positioned to play a pivotal role in decarbonising industries and meeting global emissions reduction goals. With regulatory frameworks and market dynamics aligned to support its adoption, the SOEC sector is set for significant expansion in the coming years.
Author
Laura Quinton, Elcogen OY, Communications Manager
